If you want to put a position on a game or an event and have the stake, the odds and the payout all counted in satoshis, you have a short list of venues to choose from. This guide compares the ones that exist in late 2026: Lightning Faucet, which runs a fixed-odds sports book and pool-based Bitcoin price markets in sats, Predyx, a Lightning-native prediction market, and the two big dollar venues, Polymarket and Kalshi, which are worth understanding even though neither one trades in sats.
Browse markets in sats Read the market rules
What “in sats” actually means
A satoshi is one hundred-millionth of a bitcoin. A venue that is denominated in sats quotes your stake in sats, shows your potential return in sats, and credits the result in sats, with no dollar figure anywhere in the loop. That matters for two reasons. First, there is no conversion step: you never buy a dollar token, wait for a bank transfer or convert back at the end. Second, the amounts can be tiny. A market with a 10 sat minimum lets you take a real position for less than a cent, which is simply not possible on a venue whose smallest unit is a dollar contract.
Sats-denominated venues almost always settle over the Lightning Network, because Lightning is the only rail where moving 100 sats is practical. You pay a Lightning invoice to fund a balance, and you withdraw by scanning an LNURL code or pasting an invoice. Both directions usually clear in seconds.
The comparison at a glance
| Venue | Unit | How prices read | Minimum stake | Identity checks | Funding rail | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning Faucet | Sats | Percent chance, with the return shown in sats | 10 sats | None. Email or Lightning wallet sign-in | Lightning in, Lightning out | Sports (fixed odds), parlays, Bitcoin price (pools), free weekly Pick’em |
| Predyx | Sats | Share price from 0 to 1, plus percent chance | Not stated on the site | Not stated; trading disabled in restricted regions | Lightning | Bitcoin, sports, politics, world news, AI, elections, user-created markets |
| Polymarket | US dollar stablecoin (USDC) | Share price from 0.00 to 1.00, pays 1.00 if correct | Set per order on the exchange | Region checks; the international site blocks US users | On-chain stablecoin deposits | Politics, crypto, sports, culture, science |
| Kalshi | US dollars | Contracts priced in cents on the dollar | One contract | Full identity verification, CFTC-regulated | Debit card, bank transfer, PayPal, Venmo | Economics, politics, weather, sports, culture |
Competitor details are taken from each venue’s public pages on 7 November 2026 and can change. Check the venue itself before relying on any of them.
Lightning Faucet: a fixed-odds book and pool markets, all in sats
Lightning Faucet runs two kinds of market, and the difference matters when you read a price.
Fixed-odds sports markets
Every sports market is a single YES or NO question about a real game, such as “Will the Boston Bruins beat the Toronto Maple Leafs?” or “Will this game go over 6.5 goals?” Each side shows a percentage, and the bet form shows exactly how many sats you get back if that side wins. The return locks the moment you confirm. Later line moves only affect new bets, and no other player has to take the other side for your bet to stand.
Leagues with a live market hub right now are the NFL, college football, NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, the Premier League, the Champions League, the Bundesliga, MMA and tennis. Betting on a game closes five minutes before the scheduled start. If a game is postponed or a total lands exactly on the line, the market is cancelled and every stake is refunded in full.
You can also combine two to four picks from different games into a parlay. The slip prices the combination in sats before you confirm, and it shows the current stake and payout ceilings for parlays, which are lower than the single-bet limits.
Pool-based Bitcoin price markets
Markets without a quoted price, including the daily Bitcoin price questions, run as pools. YES and NO stakes go into one pot, and when the market resolves the winning side splits the pot in proportion to what each player staked. Odds shift as the pool fills, so your eventual return depends on the final pool, not on the percentage you saw when you bet. Betting on a price market closes thirty minutes before resolution, and resolution reads a stored price snapshot rather than a single live lookup, so you can check the number the market settled on.
Limits and settlement
- Minimum bet: 10 sats on any market.
- Maximum bet: 50,000 sats per bet on fixed-odds sports markets. Standard pool markets have a 25,000 sat ceiling that steps down as the market approaches close time, so the bet form always shows the current effective maximum.
- Settlement: after the final score or price snapshot posts, winning bets are credited to your balance automatically. There is no claim button.
- Identity: no government ID, selfie or proof of address is collected. You can sign in with an email address or with a Lightning wallet through LNURL-auth.
A free on-ramp: weekly Pick’em
The weekly Pick’em covers NFL and college football. Entering is free and picking does not require a bet. The top three finishers each week win bonus sats, and to collect a prize you need at least one real-money prediction bet during that contest week. Prizes land as bonus balance with a playthrough requirement, so they are not withdrawable cash until you have played them through.
Predyx: a Lightning-native market with share-style pricing
Predyx describes itself as a Lightning Network native prediction market and promises instant Lightning payouts. Market size is shown in sats, and each outcome carries a decimal price between 0 and 1 alongside a percent chance, in the same style as the dollar exchanges. It lists binary YES or NO questions as well as multi-outcome markets such as a league champion or an election winner, across Bitcoin, sports, politics, world news, AI and technology, and it lets users create markets of their own. Its site notes that new sign-ups, deposits and trading are disabled in restricted regions, and it does not publish a minimum stake, so check the live site for current terms before you fund it. For someone who wants an order-book style market in sats rather than a sports book, Predyx is the closest match.
Polymarket: dollars on a blockchain, not sats
Polymarket is the largest crypto-settled prediction market, and it comes up in every search for Bitcoin prediction markets, so it is worth being clear about what it is. Trades are collateralised in USDC, a US dollar stablecoin, and shares in each outcome trade between 0.00 and 1.00. A winning share pays out one dollar at resolution. Your balance, your stake and your payout are therefore in dollars, even though the exchange runs on a blockchain. The international site blocks users in the United States and a list of other regions, and a separately regulated US product exists with its own rules. If you hold bitcoin and want to trade there, you would need to convert it to a stablecoin first and back again afterwards.
Kalshi: a regulated US dollar exchange
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, and it has been a designated contract market since 2020. Contracts are priced in cents on the dollar and settle in US dollars. Because it is a regulated exchange, every account goes through identity verification before it can trade, and its help centre lists debit cards, bank transfer, PayPal and Venmo as the ways to move money in and out. It is a serious venue for economic, political and weather markets, and increasingly for sports, but there is no bitcoin anywhere in the flow.
How odds and payouts work in sats
Three pricing styles show up across these venues, and the arithmetic is the same whichever unit you use.
Fixed odds in sats
On a Lightning Faucet sports market the percentage you see is the implied chance of that side. A lower percentage means a bigger return if it hits. If a side is priced so that it returns 2.5 times your stake, a 1,000 sat bet pays 2,500 sats if it wins, which is your 1,000 sat stake back plus 1,500 sats of profit. That figure is fixed when you confirm.
Pool shares in sats
On a pool market your return is a share of the payable pool. If your side wins, the losing side’s stakes are shared among winners in proportion to what each staked, and you get your own stake back as well. The bet form shows a payout preview before you confirm, and it is an estimate, because the pool keeps moving until close. Early bets can end up better or worse than they looked.
Share prices from 0 to 1
Predyx, Polymarket and Kalshi all quote outcomes as a price between 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100 cents). The price is the market’s probability. Buy YES at 0.33 and you pay 0.33 units per share; if YES resolves true, each share pays a full unit, so you triple your money. On Predyx that unit is sats; on Polymarket and Kalshi it is a dollar. The maths is identical, only the denomination changes.
Depositing and withdrawing by Lightning
On Lightning Faucet the minimum deposit is 100 sats. You enter an amount, pay the Lightning invoice from any wallet, and the balance credits as soon as the payment settles, usually within a second or two. You can also start with sats earned from the free surfaces on the earn page, with the caveat that bonus balance has a playthrough requirement before winnings from it can be withdrawn.
Withdrawals use LNURL-withdraw: open the withdraw page, scan the QR code with your wallet, choose the amount and confirm. The minimum withdrawal is 100 sats and eligible withdrawals generally arrive in seconds. One small deposit is required before your first withdrawal, with stated exceptions for some earned income, and the withdrawal guide walks through the balance types.
Predyx also funds and pays out over Lightning, so the experience is similar in shape. Polymarket and Kalshi need either a stablecoin transfer or a bank-side method, which is where the extra steps and waiting come from if your money starts out as bitcoin.
Which venue fits you
- You hold sats and want to bet on games with a locked price: Lightning Faucet’s fixed-odds book is built for exactly that, down to a 10 sat minimum.
- You want sats-denominated markets on politics, news or AI with an order-book feel: Predyx covers those categories and lets you create markets.
- You are outside the US, already hold stablecoins, and want deep liquidity on big events: Polymarket is the obvious choice, accepting that everything is in dollars.
- You are in the US and want a regulated venue with bank funding: Kalshi, with identity verification as the trade-off.
None of these venues makes winning any easier than the others. Odds reflect what the market or the book thinks will happen, and a position can lose on every one of them. The difference is what unit you think in, how much you can start with, and how quickly your money moves.
Prediction markets involve risk. Outcomes can go against your position. Review the market rules and Pick’em eligibility before participating.