How Prediction Markets Work

BTC Price Markets

Daily markets on whether Bitcoin will close above or below a target price.

• Schedule: New markets created daily, resolve at midnight UTC
• Betting closes: before resolution, currently 30 minutes ahead, so 23:30 UTC for a market resolving at midnight UTC, though that lead time is a site setting and can change. The market question is worded against the resolution time, not the betting cutoff, so the close time shown above the bet form is the one that counts, so check it before you leave a position to the last minute.
• Oracle: CoinGecko
• Resolution: If BTC is at or above the threshold at resolution time → YES wins. We snapshot the price every 5 minutes so resolution reads a stored value rather than one live lookup. That 5-minute cadence is the oracle record, not the betting cutoff.

Sports Markets

Bet on NBA, NHL, MLB, EPL, and MLS game outcomes.

• Available leagues: MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS, EPL, Champions League, Brasileirão, MMA (NFL and College Football from September 2026)
• Betting closes: 5 minutes before the scheduled start. Line integrity collapses once an event is under way.
• Oracle: The Odds API
• Resolution: Based on official final scores
• Edge cases: A drawn match settles as NO (the named side did not win). Knockout ties decided on penalties are resolved manually to the side that advanced. Markets are cancelled and bets refunded if the game is postponed or no score is available within 24 hours

Weather Markets

Daily temperature and precipitation markets for major US cities.

• Cities: New York, Los Angeles, Miami
• Oracle: Open-Meteo (free open-source weather API)
• Temperature markets: Resolve based on the official recorded daily high
• Rain markets: Resolve YES for any precipitation above 0.25mm

Mempool Fee Markets

Weekly markets on whether median Bitcoin transaction fees will exceed a threshold.

• Schedule: Created on Mondays, resolve on Sunday
• Oracle: mempool.space
• Resolution: YES if median fee exceeds the specified sat/vB threshold during the week

Oracle Sources

Each market type resolves using a trusted third-party oracle. Resolution is fully automated with no manual intervention.

Resolution Logic

At each market's resolution time, the oracle data is fetched automatically:

• If the condition is met (price above threshold, team wins, rain recorded, etc.) → outcome is YES
• If the condition is not met → outcome is NO
• Resolution is fully automated, with no manual intervention

Edge Cases

• One-sided markets: If only YES or only NO bets exist, the market is cancelled and all bets are fully refunded.
• Cancelled markets: If a market is cancelled for any reason (e.g. postponed sports game, unavailable data), all bets are fully refunded.
• Data unavailable: If oracle data cannot be fetched at resolution time, the system retries until data is available.

How Winnings Are Calculated

Parimutuel markets: winners share the payable pool, proportional to their bet size on the winning side. Fixed-odds markets: a winning bet pays your stake × the multiplier locked when you bet.

Your estimated payout is shown on the bet form before you bet, and it updates as the pool grows. The final payout is set when the market resolves.

Worked Example

Suppose a market has:

• YES pool: 1,000 sats (you bet 200 of these)
• NO pool: 500 sats
• Total pool: 1,500 sats

If the outcome is YES:

• Your 200 sats are 20% of the winning YES side (200 / 1,000).
• You receive your 20% share of the payable pool, which is more than your 200 sat stake because the NO side added 500 sats.
• The exact estimate for your bet is shown on the bet form before you confirm.

If the outcome is NO, you lose your 200 sat bet.

Dynamic Pool-Based Odds

On parimutuel markets, odds are determined by the ratio of YES to NO bets in the pool. As more bets come in, the odds shift in real time.

• If most of the money is on YES, YES odds decrease and NO odds increase
• If the pools are balanced (50/50), both sides have similar odds
• The odds bar on each market shows the current pool distribution

Early Bets Get Better Odds

If you bet early when your side's pool is small and more money comes in on the opposite side after you, your potential payout improves. The payout calculator on each market shows your exact potential payout before you place your bet.

Graduated Max Bet

To prevent last-second sniping, the maximum bet decreases as a market approaches its close time:

• More than 2 hours before close: 100%, the full max bet (25,000 sats)
• 1–2 hours: 50% (12,500 sats)
• 30 min – 1 hour: 25% (6,250 sats)
• 10–30 minutes: 10% (2,500 sats)
• 5–10 minutes: 5% (1,250 sats)
• 1–5 minutes: 2% (500 sats)
• Under 1 minute: minimum bet only (10 sats)

Amounts above are for standard markets (25,000 sat base limit). Sports markets close before the game starts, so they keep their full 50,000 sat limit right up until betting closes. The current effective maximum is shown on the bet form when it differs from the base limit.

Per-Player Position Cap

To keep markets fair, each player’s total bets on a single market are capped at 25,000 sats on standard markets and 50,000 sats on fixed-odds sports markets. You can place multiple bets as odds change, but your combined position cannot exceed this limit. The bet form shows your current position and remaining capacity.

Pool Limits

• Maximum pool size: 500,000 sats per market
• Multiple bets: You can place multiple bets on the same market, even on different sides
• Your total position per market is capped at 25,000 sats (50,000 sats on fixed-odds sports markets) across all bets